This morning, the Electric wholesale prices have opened up 9.63% lower than this time last week with Gas Staying the same as last week.
Short-term (prompt-month ahead) contracts were typically trending downwards last week, while longer-term (seasons) contracts were trending upwards. Annualized October 22 gas and electric contracts were up by 2% and 4%, respectively, with power boosted by an 11% increase in European Carbon and a 6% increase in UK Carbon. As the April compliance deadline approaches, carbon markets have had a particularly good run, triggering a surge of last-minute buying.
Last week, the global fuels market lost value, with Brent Crude down 2.41 percent and LNG rates in particular down by 22 percent week-on-week. High costs, a pandemic slowdown, and Shanghai lockdowns have forced China to begin exporting extra LNG, temporarily lowering prices for the European market. However, as the war in Ukraine continues, there is little possibility of a diplomatic solution in the near future, as a massive explosion at a Russian oil station this morning, apparently caused by Ukraine firing missiles over the border, intensifies tensions.
Nord Stream 2 is also 'dead,' according to Berlin, and an operational licence would 'never be authorised.' Nonetheless, Brent is down 4.64 percent at the time of writing, but still above $100/bbl. Carbon is down 2.62 percent this morning, despite a robust week on speculative purchasing, in a bearish indicator for the overall market, as the EU provides guidance that appears to indicate that corporations can pay for Russian gas in roubles without violating sanctions (so long as they can pay in Euros which are then converted by Gazprombank, a mechanism already proposed by Russia.)
How the market has opened each day:
Date Electric (£/MWh) Gas (p/therm)
18/04/2022 176.50 141.00
19/04/2022 162.10 163.60
20/04/2022 153.10 161.20
21/04/2022 141.10 138.10
22/04/2022 155.10 140.10
25/04/2022 159.50 141.00
7 day averages
Electric (£ per MWh) 157.90
Gas (pence per therm) 147.50
The below shows how the market compares to the previous week, month and year.
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