We could well see snowfall in the UK this month, as well as central Europe, with Germany also expecting a chance of snowfall. We had a very mild start to this Winter, but we are expected to see a cold exit to it.
Breaking down the forecast, between now and the 8th March is expected to be the coldest period, with a high pressure system covering the UK. After the 8th we should see temperatures start to rise, but there is some debate as to how quickly. It is looking like a cold month none the less.
Despite the cold spell, prices have been very settled, and overall week to week, still in decline. This is a very notable change to the cold spell we saw in December and January where markets did react much more bullishly.
EU Gas storage is still sitting at 62% and a glut of LNG is on its way to UK shores, which is helping to keep fears calm. This and the fact we are at the back end of Winter means this really should be the very last cold spell.
Russian gas flows through Ukraine have increased slightly month to month, which is an interesting observation. Gas flows via Norway are holding strong, and LNG deliveries into Europe remain high.
How the market is averaging out
Date Gas (p/therm) Elec (£/MWh)
Last 7 days 125.11 137.25
Last Month 132.51 138.81
Last Year 204.21 211.42
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